A strong majority of voters in New York believe that President Trump will win a second term in the White House, a new poll said Monday.
Sixty-two percent of registered voters in the Empire State predict Trump will get re-elected, while only 29 percent said they think he will lose his reelection in November, the Siena College survey found.
Not surprisingly, 81 percent of Republicans were bullish on Trump’s re-election prospects as were 73 percent of independents.
But even a plurality of Democrats — 48 percent — think he will win a second term, the poll found.
That’s more than 41 percent of Democrats who predict Trump won’t be re-elected.
Virtually every group in New York believes Trump will win a second term in November: 63 percent of union households, 58 percent of New York City residents, 69 percent of suburbanites and 61 percent of upstaters.
African American voters were split — 43 percent said Trump will win a second term compared to 41 percent who believe he will be defeated.
Only slightly more liberals, 47 percent, believe Trump will be defeated by the eventual Democratic nominee compared to 42 percent who think he’ll win a second term.
But that doesn’t mean New Yorkers will vote for Trump.
All the six leading Democratic candidates would trounce Trump in a hypothetical match-up, according to the survey.
Former three-term New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg would defeat Trump by 25 points as the Democratic nominee on the New York ballot – 58 percent to 33 percent, the largest of any of the Democratic candidates, the poll found.
Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden would carry New York by 19 points over Trump, Bernie Sanders by 18 points, Amy Klobuchar by 16 points and Elizabeth Warren by 14 points.
When registered Democrats were asked which of their party’s candidate has the best chance to become president, 33 percent said Bloomberg, 22 percent Sanders and 16 percent said Biden.
“Thirty-six weeks out, it does not appear that the Democrats’ winning streak in presidential contests in New York – solid since Ronald Regan’s re-election in 1984 – is in jeopardy. All six leading Democratic candidates currently lead Trump by double digits,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
“Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor and current New Yorker, has a substantial 25-point lead over the President who was elected from New York and now lives in Florida, largely on the strength of a 17-point lead among independent voters,” Greenberg said.
But he also noted that most voters are resigned to Trump winning a second term despite their opposition to the GOP incumbent.
“While New Yorkers appear poised to give the Democrats their ninth consecutive presidential nod, they also overwhelmingly believe Trump is poised to win re-election to a second term,” Greenberg said.
“More than three-quarters of Republicans, nearly three-quarters of independents and nearly half of Democrats think Trump will win re-election in November. A majority of voters from every demographic group think Trump will win, with the exception of Democrats – only a plurality – and self-described liberals, who say he will not win 47-42 percent.”
New York’s Democratic primary is on April 28. A lot can happen before then.
The poll asked registered Democrats who they would vote for: 25 percent said Sanders, 21 percent favored Bloomberg, 13 percent for Biden, 11 percent for Warren and nine percent each for Buttigieg and Klobuchar. It’s unclear who, aside from Sanders and Bloomberg, would be around to compete in the New York primary.
“This is more of a snapshot of Democrats than pre-election poll, since it is likely that South Carolina and Super Tuesday will significantly reduce the size of the field, and this poll did not look at likely primary voters,” Greenberg said of the primary survey.
The Siena College Research Institute surveyed 658 registered voters from Feb. 16-20. The poll has a margin of error of public or minus 4.5 percentage points.
For the primary question, there were 315 registered Democrats queried with a margin of error of 6.6 percentage points.
National polls and those in battleground states show Trump’s standing improving, thanks largely to a strong economy.