It’s not too early to start looking at Super Bowl prop bets for Sunday’s showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers (best available odds at U.S. sportsbooks):
Patrick Mahomes rushing yards — Over 29¹/₂: In the last three games, Mahomes has averaged 7.3 carries for 42.3 yards after averaging 3.1 attempts for 15.5 yards in the regular season. San Francisco has trouble with mobile quarterbacks, which was apparent in four games against Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson, who rushed for a combined 183 yards on 27 carries.
Travis Kelce receiving yards — Under 77¹/₂: The 49ers have the second-best pass defense in the NFL, according to FootballOutsiders’ DVOA metric. Dig a bit deeper and the numbers show San Francisco is second best in defending tight ends, allowing just 33.5 yards per game on 6.5 passing attempts to the position.
More receiving yards — George Kittle +1¹/₂ over Kelce: Similar thinking as the Kelce prop. K.C. actually allows 58.7 yards per game to the tight end position. Kittle should be able to have the better game against the weaker defense.